EUR/USD: Low for longer outlook – Rabobank

Economists at Rabobank identify factors that may result in a low for longer outlook for EUR/USD.

German economy could benefit from a weak EUR

Our 3-month EUR/USD forecast stands at 1.0500.

Our current 12-month EUR/USD forecast is 1.0900. 

While a reduction in Fed interest rates will clearly help support risk appetite, this year’s easing in US monetary policy conditions will be made against the backdrop of sluggish growth in China and potentially further economic stagnation in Germany. Added to this are the conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine. These factors question whether the safe haven USD will experience a marked outflow in favour of high yielding assets as the Fed cuts rates.

If the ECB can keep inflation under control, in our view the German economy could benefit from a weak currency whilst it tackles its economic difficulties. This factor, combined with the potentially USD supportive factors identified above, underpins our view that EUR/USD is likely to be more comfortable in a 1.0400 to 1.1200 range over the next 24 months or so than at levels over 1.1500.