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25 Feb 2014
Flash: Bearish sentiment focused on CAD - FXStreet
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Goncalo Moreira CMT, FXStreet Technical Analyst notes observations from the speculative positioning in the CME currency futures on Friday 21st, reveal the net USD longs being down week-over-week, open interest at 49629, all in all within the previous month ranges.
Key Quotes
“Sentiment reading through the AUD positioning is also bearish but exhibiting a sideways trend. Its gross longs and shorts were both reduced whereas shorts were, once again, reduced (53k from 67k contracts) much more than long contracts (9k from 11k). This gross reduction of open interest is not at all supportive for a AUD/USD down trend continuation.”
“Bearish sentiment is but focused on CAD with the net position widening this week again to an extreme range, while small speculators (non-reportables) reduce their net short. Extreme levels like this are often associated with termination of corrective waves accordingly to Elliott Wave theory, so expect some short-term turn in this market.”
“Our COT Oscillator shows an oversold recovery for JPY for both non-commercials and small speculators, and there is a small 4k contract increase in the yen gross short positions (to 96.5k), the first rise in eight weeks.”
“Bullish sentiment is building towards EUR. Its position flipped to a small net long (8.6k) from a small net short (6.9k) with gross shorts being trimmed and gross longs being increased. Bullish sentiment is also building towards GBP, but the fact that both gross longs and shorts were significantly added, warns of the risk of a topping action in cable. The non-commercial net positions for NZD against the US dollar shows its gross shorts and gross longs being reduced but the net positioning remains long and gaining ground.”
Key Quotes
“Sentiment reading through the AUD positioning is also bearish but exhibiting a sideways trend. Its gross longs and shorts were both reduced whereas shorts were, once again, reduced (53k from 67k contracts) much more than long contracts (9k from 11k). This gross reduction of open interest is not at all supportive for a AUD/USD down trend continuation.”
“Bearish sentiment is but focused on CAD with the net position widening this week again to an extreme range, while small speculators (non-reportables) reduce their net short. Extreme levels like this are often associated with termination of corrective waves accordingly to Elliott Wave theory, so expect some short-term turn in this market.”
“Our COT Oscillator shows an oversold recovery for JPY for both non-commercials and small speculators, and there is a small 4k contract increase in the yen gross short positions (to 96.5k), the first rise in eight weeks.”
“Bullish sentiment is building towards EUR. Its position flipped to a small net long (8.6k) from a small net short (6.9k) with gross shorts being trimmed and gross longs being increased. Bullish sentiment is also building towards GBP, but the fact that both gross longs and shorts were significantly added, warns of the risk of a topping action in cable. The non-commercial net positions for NZD against the US dollar shows its gross shorts and gross longs being reduced but the net positioning remains long and gaining ground.”