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3 Mar 2014
Flash: Crowded economic calendar ahead - Westpac
FXStreet (Bali) - An extremely crowded Australian data & events week begins with a flurry of second tier data, notes Sean Callow, FX Strategist at Westpac.
Key Quotes
"Of most relevance to AUD are the ABS releases with implications for Q4 GDP due Wed: business indicators, which includes inventories, company profits and a broad wages measure. Consensus on company profits is 2% q/q (Westpac 2.8%) but inventories has a more direct impact on GDP. In line with consensus, we look for flat q/q, which would translate to a 0.2ppt contribution to growth. Feb house prices, inflation gauge and PMI should be largely overlooked."
"A slew of Feb Asian PMIs will be released by Markit/HSBC today, including S Korea, Taiwan, India and both the final China manufacturing PMI (‘flash’ estimate 48.3 could be nudged up slightly, 12:45pm Syd/9:45am local) and the little-watched non-manufacturing PMI (Jan was 53.4). We will also see Feb inflation readings in Indonesia and Thailand. Singapore’s Feb manufacturing PMI will be released during London trade and should be ignored as usual."
"The US data calendar is worth noting. The Fed’s preferred inflation measure is due: the Jan core PCE deflator is seen remaining muted, 0.1% m/m, 1.1% y/y. The national manufacturing ISM index is seen ticking up to 52.0 from 51.3 in Jan, only a small recovery from the slide in Jan from Dec’s 56.5, attributed of course to bad weather. The new orders index should be interesting, after tumbling to 51.2 in Jan from 64.4. Jan construction spending is seen -0.5% m/m."
Key Quotes
"Of most relevance to AUD are the ABS releases with implications for Q4 GDP due Wed: business indicators, which includes inventories, company profits and a broad wages measure. Consensus on company profits is 2% q/q (Westpac 2.8%) but inventories has a more direct impact on GDP. In line with consensus, we look for flat q/q, which would translate to a 0.2ppt contribution to growth. Feb house prices, inflation gauge and PMI should be largely overlooked."
"A slew of Feb Asian PMIs will be released by Markit/HSBC today, including S Korea, Taiwan, India and both the final China manufacturing PMI (‘flash’ estimate 48.3 could be nudged up slightly, 12:45pm Syd/9:45am local) and the little-watched non-manufacturing PMI (Jan was 53.4). We will also see Feb inflation readings in Indonesia and Thailand. Singapore’s Feb manufacturing PMI will be released during London trade and should be ignored as usual."
"The US data calendar is worth noting. The Fed’s preferred inflation measure is due: the Jan core PCE deflator is seen remaining muted, 0.1% m/m, 1.1% y/y. The national manufacturing ISM index is seen ticking up to 52.0 from 51.3 in Jan, only a small recovery from the slide in Jan from Dec’s 56.5, attributed of course to bad weather. The new orders index should be interesting, after tumbling to 51.2 in Jan from 64.4. Jan construction spending is seen -0.5% m/m."