When is the Aussie Trade Balance, and how could it affect the AUD/USD?

Australian Trade Balance overview

Early Thursday at 01:30 GMT will see Australia's Trade Balance and associated Import/Export figures for June, and the headline m/m Trade Balance reading is forecast to come in at $900 million, versus the previous month's balance of $827 million. Analysts at ANZ are anticipating a lift of the Aussie Trade Balance to $1 billion on stronger metals trade, "we expect the trade surplus to have improved to AUD1,000m in June. Underlying this will be an increase in shipments of iron ore and coal,"  though they were quick to point out that part of the reason for the projected jump in the number is from an anticipated slowdown in imports: "import growth will likely slow after it was boosted by a strong rise in consumption goods imports in May that is unlikely to be sustained. Imports of the volatile non-monetary gold segment will likely slow as well."

Westpac analysts are notably more bullish on the upcoming figure, expecting a jump to $1.1 billion with imports remaining steady and a projected jump in exports of about 0.8%: "Australia's monthly trade account has been in surplus so far in 2018. For June, we anticipate another trade surplus, widening a little to $1.1bn, up from $0.8bn in May."

How could it affect the AUD/USD?

With broader markets largely focused on tariff headlines concerning the deepening trade row between the US and China, market impact of the Aussie Trade Balance could be on the muted side as sentiment continues to be hobbled by trade news centered on China, Australia's largest trading partner. Despite trade tensions, the AUD/USD is managing to trade to the middle ahead of the data release, as FXStreet's own Valeria Bednarik noted, "the risk has now leaned to the downside on US decision on tariffs on China, although the pair continues trading within familiar levels, therefore technically neutral. In the 4 hours chart, the price is battling around a congestion of moving averages, while technical indicators changed course, now heading lower around their mid-lines. Below 0.7370 chances are of a steeper decline, with strong buying interest still aligned around 0.7300."

Support levels: 0.7370 0.7330 0.7300     

Resistance levels: 0.7445 0.7490 0.7520

Key notes

AUD/USD analysis: back to its comfort zone around 0.7400

Trading the Aussie with Australia Trade Balance

About the Australian Trade Balance

The trade balance released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is the difference in the value of its imports and exports of Australian goods. Export data can give an important reflection of Australian growth, while imports provide an indication of domestic demand. Trade Balance gives an early indication of the net export performance. If a steady demand in exchange for Australian exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the AUD.